Why is it Necessary to Maintain
Confidence in banks?
A talk by John Tomlinson in the House of Lords
October 2000
We are often reminded that we need to maintain confidence
in the banks and the banking system as a whole. The reason
why, on one level, is obvious. People put their money into
banks and they need to be confident that doing so is safe.
On another level, we need to ask ourselves: given the apparent
size and profitability of these institutions, is there any
reason why we might not be confident? Surely, if there is
nothing about which not to be confident, we will automatically
be confident. If we need to maintain confidence, we must
be missing something.
In this paper I intend critically to examine the current
financial position of banks from the perspective of depositors.
I intend to examine the current state of the banking system
as a whole, how it produces unwanted by-products, what those
unwanted by-products are, how they affect the rest of the
economy and how to correct the system to stop it from producing
them. It is my objective to demonstrate how insidiously
and pervasively a fault in the banking system invades our
every day life and destroys it.
Banks and Bank Deposits
Barclays Bank plc
1999 Balance Sheet as currently presented
(£ millions)
| |
|
1999 |
1998 |
| ASSETS |
| |
Cash & balances at central banks |
1,166 |
942 |
| |
Items in course of collection from other
banks |
2,492 |
2,475 |
| |
Treasury bills and other eligible bills |
7,176 |
4,748 |
| |
Loans and advances to banks |
42,656 |
36,612 |
| |
Loans and advances to customers |
113,538 |
96,110 |
| |
Debt securities |
53,919 |
45,180 |
| |
Equity shares |
5,604 |
4,888 |
| |
Interests in associated undertakings |
106 |
150 |
| |
Intangible fixed assets |
183 |
196 |
| |
Tangible fixed assets |
1,800 |
1,939 |
| |
Other assets |
15,910 |
16,617 |
| |
Prepayments and accrued income |
2,203 |
2,552 |
| |
Total Assets |
246,753 |
212,409 |
| LIABILITIES |
| |
Deposits by banks |
44,486 |
34,420 |
| |
Customer accounts |
123,966 |
108,805 |
| |
Debt securities in issue |
23,329 |
17,824 |
| |
Items in course of collection due to other
banks |
1,400 |
1,279 |
| |
Other liabilities |
35,119 |
33,350 |
| |
Accruals and deferred income |
3,290 |
3,074 |
| |
Provisions for liabilities |
1,731 |
1,767 |
| |
Long term loan capital |
4,597 |
3,734 |
| |
|
237,918 |
204,253 |
| MINORITY INTERESTS AND
SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS |
| |
Minority interests |
352 |
314 |
| |
Called up share capital |
1,495 |
1,511 |
| |
Share premium account |
1,583 |
1,381 |
| |
Capital redemption reserve |
207 |
179 |
| |
Other capital reserve |
320 |
320 |
| |
Revaluation reserve |
37 |
36 |
| |
Profit and loss account |
4,841 |
4,415 |
| |
|
8,835 |
8,156 |
| |
Total liabilities and shareholders
funds |
246,753 |
212,409 |
| |
|
|
|
| Memorandum items |
| |
Contingent liabilities |
18,934 |
15,237 |
- It presents itself as an enormous institution with assets
of £246,753 million.
- It has £1,166 million in cash and deposits at central
banks.
- Contingent liabilities of £18 billion are not an unmanageable
threat in comparison to assets of £246billion.
These are, indeed, impressive figures.
Further, it is an institution subject to tight regulations
and whose deposits are covered by the Deposit Protection
Scheme.
Whilst the figures appear to provide a basis for confidence,
the balance sheet presented does not indicate to whom
the cash belongs or to whom the assets belong. Do they
belong to the bank's shareholders or to its depositors?
Neither the depositors' position nor their actual protection
is clearly shown.
A banks is permitted to present its balance sheet in
a very different format than any other company. If Barclays
were to present its balance sheet as any other company
had to present its, the picture becomes much more clear.
Barclays Bank plc
1999 Balance Sheet as any other company
would be required to present it
(£ millions)
| |
|
1999 |
1998 |
| FIXED ASSETS |
| |
Intangible fixed assets |
|
|
183 |
|
|
196 |
| |
Tangible fixed assets |
|
|
1,800 |
|
|
1,939 |
| |
Equity shares |
|
|
5,604 |
|
|
4,888 |
| |
Interests in associated undertakings |
|
|
106 |
|
|
150 |
| |
|
|
|
7,693 |
|
|
7,173 |
| CURRENT ASSETS |
| |
Loans and advances to customers |
|
113,538 |
|
|
96,110 |
|
| |
Loans and advances to banks |
|
42,656 |
|
|
36,612 |
|
| |
Treasury bills and other eligible bills |
|
7,176 |
|
|
4,748 |
|
| |
Debt securities |
|
53,919 |
|
|
45,180 |
|
| |
Other assets |
|
15,910 |
|
|
16,617 |
|
| |
Prepayments and accrued income |
|
2,203 |
|
|
2,552 |
|
| |
Cash & balances at central banks |
|
1,166 |
|
|
942 |
|
| |
|
|
1,166 |
|
|
942 |
|
| |
|
|
239,060 |
|
|
205,236 |
|
| LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES |
| |
Deposits by banks |
44,486 |
|
|
34,420 |
|
|
| |
Items in course of collection due to other
banks |
1,400 |
|
|
1,279 |
|
|
| |
Customer accounts |
123,966 |
|
|
108,805 |
|
|
| |
Debt securities in issue |
23,329 |
|
|
17,824 |
|
|
| |
Other liabilities |
35,119 |
|
|
33,350 |
|
|
| |
Accruals and deferred income |
3,290 |
|
|
3,074 |
|
|
| |
Provisions for liabilities |
1,731 |
- 233,321 |
5,739 |
1,767 |
- 200,519 |
4,717 |
| |
|
|
|
13,432 |
|
|
11,890 |
| LESS LONG TERM LOAN CAPITAL |
| |
Long term loan capital |
- 4,597 |
- 3,734 |
| |
|
8,835 |
8,156 |
| CAPITAL RESERVES |
| |
Minority interests |
352 |
314 |
| |
Called up share capital |
1,495 |
1,511 |
| |
Share premium account |
1,583 |
1,381 |
| |
Reserves |
527 |
499 |
| |
Revaluation reserve |
37 |
36 |
| |
Profit and loss account |
4,841 |
4,415 |
| |
|
8,835 |
8,156 |
| |
|
|
|
| Memorandum items |
| |
Contingent liabilities |
18,934 |
15,237 |
| Notes |
| |
Exchange-rate related derivatives |
369,461 |
434,452 |
| |
Interest-rate related derivatives |
1,259,856 |
1,111,858 |
- The assets are suddenly reduced to £8,835 million.
- Customer accounts are more accurately labelled. They are
current liabilities of the shareholders.
- The contingent liabilities of £18 billion are now seriously
out of proportion to net assets of £8,835 million and deposits
can be seen to be subject to a much more significant threat.
- The bank now looks less strong and the question of the
position of depositors as current liabilities begs clarification.
On page 15 of the FSA's Occasional Paper Series 7, it clearly
states
| "Bank depositors are generally
unsecured creditors if the bank fails, ranking
behind secured creditors (but ahead of subordinated
debt holders and equity holders). |
The term UNSECURED CREDITOR gives a very different impression
of the position of depositors than most people understand.
Most people believe they are putting their money into
the bank for safekeeping.
The security of deposits has weakened significantly since
the first depositor lodged his gold coin with a goldsmith
for storage on a shelf in the goldsmith's strong room for
safe-keeping. Of course, in those days, shelves were known
as banks. Hence the derivation of term 'banks' and 'bankers'
today. Then the deposit was stored for the depositor. 'Banking'
was a warehousing operation and the goldsmith had a responsibility
to safeguard the deposits of each depositor. Then, it was
accurate to say, "I put my money in the bank".
Today it is more accurate to say, "I loaned my money to
the bank". When you put your money into your cheque account
at the bank now, you are actually putting it into
your loan account to the bank and,
when you issue a cheque you are reducing the amount you
have loaned to the bank.
Therefore, I suggest, it is important to examine - even
more closely - the position of customer deposits in the
banks' accounts to see how safe your loans are.
Barclays Bank plc
1999 Financial information as depositors
ought to examine it
(£ millions)
| |
|
|
1999 |
1998 |
| CASH ON DEPOSIT |
| |
Secured |
| |
|
by banks |
44,486 |
34,420 |
| |
|
in course of collection due to banks |
1,400 |
1,279 |
| |
|
debt securities in issue |
23,329 |
17,824 |
| |
|
|
69,215 |
53,523 |
| |
Unsecured |
| |
|
customers' deposits |
123,966 |
108,805 |
| |
|
Total |
193,181 |
162,328 |
| LESS CASH IN HAND AND BALANCES AT CENTRAL
BANKS |
1,166 |
942 |
| CASH SHORTFALL |
192,015 |
161,386 |
| INVESTMENTS INTENDED TO
COVER CASH SHORTFALL |
| |
Loans to borrowers deemed least likely
to default |
| |
|
Treasury bills and other eligible bills |
7,176 |
4,748 |
| |
|
Loans and advances to banks |
42,656 |
63,612 |
| |
|
In course of collection due from other
banks |
2,492 |
2,475 |
| |
|
|
52,324 |
43,835 |
| |
Loans at greater risk |
| |
|
Loans and advances to customers |
113,538 |
96,110 |
| |
|
Debt securities less non-recourse borrowings |
53,919 |
45,180 |
| |
|
|
167,457 |
141,290 |
| |
|
Total |
219,781 |
185,125 |
| MEMORANDA: |
| |
|
FURTHER THREATS TO DEPOSITORS' FUNDS |
|
|
| |
Contingent liabilities |
18,934 |
15,237 |
| |
Exchange rate related derivatives - for
the Group |
369,461 |
434,452 |
| |
Interest rate related derivatives - for
the Group |
1,259,856 |
1,111,858 |
| |
|
|
1,648,251 |
1,561,547 |
| |
|
ASSESSMENT OF RISK TO CUSTOMERS' DEPOSITS |
|
|
| |
Total investments available to cover depositor's
funds |
219,781 |
185,125 |
| |
Less secured deposits |
69,215 |
53,523 |
| |
Balance available to unsecured depositors |
150,566 |
131,602 |
| |
|
Cover - excluding further threats to depositors'
funds |
1.2 |
1.2 |
| |
Shareholders funds |
8,483 |
7,842 |
| |
|
As a percentage of customers' deposits |
7% |
7% |
| |
Further threats to depositors' funds |
1,648,251 |
1,561,547 |
| |
|
As a percentage of customers' deposits |
1330% |
1435% |
| |
|
Percentage loss which will wipe out
customers' deposits |
8% |
8% |
This format examines the strength of the bank from the perspective
of depositors.
The FSA document shows that deposits and loans to the bank
are actually one and the same. They each represent cash put
into the bank. Some deposits/loans are secured, others are
unsecured. Cheque or demand deposits are not differentiated
from time or interest bearing deposits. All deposits are loans.
In proportion to deposits, there is little
actual cash held in the bank. The shortfall between deposited
cash and the cash to available meet withdrawals is substantial.
Secured deposits exceed the amount loaned to borrowers deemed
least likely to default. Therefore, secured depositors will
have claim on all of the safest loans as well as to a substantial
amount of the loans at greater risk.
This leaves all customer deposits covered only by loans
at greater risk.
The notes in the accounts also reveal a substantial investment
in derivatives - far beyond any reasonable relationship
to shareholders' funds - substantially increasing the possible
threat to depositors funds.
|
It is now possible to see why it is not only important,
but essential, to maintain confidence in the banks:
there is little in them about which depositors
can be confident (and, in the event of a run on the
banks and failure, depositors will be shown little
mercy).
|
The only protection beyond the bank's assets offered to depositors
is the Deposit Protection Scheme which insures depositors
for 90% of the first £20,000 - a maximum of £18,000.
- How is it that we have come to this position?
- Why is our money not in our account?
- Why are depositors merely unsecured creditors?
- Why is there no fiduciary responsibility between
the bank and its depositors?
- What has led us to this position
|
The Historic Erosion of Depositor Security
A brief look at the history of banking will answer some of
these questions.
People lodged their gold coins with banks (goldsmiths) for
safekeeping. This was a warehousing or storage business and
there was a "trust" or fiduciary relationship between banker
and depositor.
Bankers noted that, between deposits and withdrawals, only
the coins at the front of the shelves moved. The remainder
gathered dust. They began to use those from the back for
their own purposes. They loaned them to borrowers for profit.
Initially, this was fraudulent behaviour.
The borrowers then used the borrowed coins in exchanges.
The recipients of those coins then deposited them in their
bank and the banks issued new deposit receipts to them.
But, there were already deposit receipts issued against
these very coins. Thus a gap was created between the number
of coins for which receipts had been issued and the number
of coins available to meet these receipts.
The receipts, themselves, were also being used in exchanges
in lieu of coins and they became the first paper money.
The government could see the benefits being derived from
these practices of the bankers and, to pay for the First
World War, printed an enormous amount of paper claims on
its gold and coins whilst, at the same time, it sent a great
amount of its gold to America to pay for armaments. The
gap between the amount of paper money and the gold available
to honour it took a quantum leap.
Eventually the discrepancy between the number of coins and
the amount of gold for which receipts, claims or paper money
had been issued and the number of coins and the amount of
gold available to honour them became so obvious that many
people were questioning the value of the claims and refusing
to accept paper money in any of its forms. The banking system
faced a crisis.
The fraudulent behaviour won the day. Under pressure from
bankers and financiers and aware of its own role in creating
the crisis and the resultant weakness of its own position,
the government legitimized the fraud. It removed from those
who were prudent the security provided by their holdings
of real gold. It made the ownership of gold illegal. Instead
of chastising bankers and admitting its own role in creating
the crisis, the government made ownership of gold illegal
- except for governments - and proclaimed its own paper
the only valid currency. In essence, it honoured fraud and
dishonoured integrity. Those who trusted real gold and coins
lost, but the banking system was saved. Banks could continue
to make money by issuing more than one receipt against the
same deposit. Now, however, these essentially fraudulent
practices were made legal.
This was the birth of what was known as "the fractional
reserve banking system". Under this system, banks were required
to maintain a proportion of their deposits either as cash
or as deposits with the Bank of England. The proportion
remained at 20% for a long time. Thus, a depositor was assured
of at least 20% of his deposit. The other side of this assurance
is that the banks could each lend up to 80% of each new
deposit. Thus, a bank which received a deposit of £5,000
could lend £4,000 and the bank which received the borrowed
£4,000 as a deposit could lend £3,200 etc. So, whilst the
individual bank which received the £5,000 deposit was limited
to lending only its excess reserves and could create but
£4,000 in new deposits, the banking system as a whole could
create £25,000 - many multiples of each bank's excess reserves.
In July1988, the Basle Accord removed the fractional reserve
system and replaced it with the "capital adequacy system".
Under the capital adequacy system, banks can lend up to
a set multiple of its capital. The current rules mean a
bank can issue about 12.5 times its capital. Should a bank,
which is already fully loaned, wish to lend some more, it
can simply issue new capital. By raising £80 million in
new capital a bank can lend £1 billion. Of the £80 million,
only a small proportion needs to be equity. The rest can
be loan stock. In other words, by issuing a certain type
of loan a bank can authorise itself to issue a great deal
more.
Worse, under the capital adequacy system reserves are no
longer required except to the extent needed to fund the
Bank of England. Reserves are now less than 1% of deposits.
In fact, no longer needing to concentrate on maintaining
reserves, banks have now become so sophisticated in their
operations that they now lend without concern for how much
they have on deposit. If they lend more than they have on
deposit they add to their deposits by borrowing overnight.
Banks have to balance their books every night. Thus, the
overnight market has become an essential backstop to bank
liquidity and the only real limit on the banks' ability
to create new money is the availability of acceptable borrowers.
The British banking system is not different in its fundamentals
than other banking systems throughout the world. By 1971
even the American government had to admit that the amount
of paper money it had issued against the gold - which governments
around the world had allowed themselves to keep in order
to maintain at least a tenuous relationship between their
own paper money and gold - was far in excess of the gold
actually held. President Nixon was being pressed by other
governmental holders of dollars throughout the world to
exchange them for gold at the rate of $35 per ounce to which
all nations had agreed at Bretton Woods in 1944. There wasn't
enough gold in Fort Knox to meet the demand. American industries
had borrowed from domestic banks and gone on a spending
spree abroad, exporting US dollars. These US dollars had
ended up in the central banks of countries all over the
world and the central banks were now claiming the gold to
which they were entitled. He had to admit that the U.S.
didn't have enough gold to honour its commitments. The American
banks had defeated even the American government. Nixon's
closure of the 'gold window' - i.e. refusal to honour the
Bretton Woods agreement - ended any relationship between
paper money and gold. From that moment on the world was
on a 'debt based monetary system'. Paper money was no longer
exchangeable for a fixed amount of any commodity. Another
constraint to limit the production of new money had been
removed.
Here we see a perspective of history which shows how the
banks and the governments together have eroded the security
of depositors. From the situation where the bank stored
depositors' money for them in trust and with a fiduciary
responsibility - in essence a 100% reserve system, through
a 20% reserve system under which depositors became unsecured
creditors of the bank and the bank's fiduciary responsibility
towards its depositors became less clear, to the current
system of virtually no reserves and the banks having no
more responsibility to their depositors than any other company
has to its creditors.
This perspective also shows how the banking system's ability
to create new money has increased as the amount banks were
required to keep in reserves decreased. This, of course,
may be in the best interest of banks but it is not in the
best interest of taxpayers, savers, pensioners and others
on fixed incomes and society as a whole. Whilst we as citizens
authorize our government to create and maintain a money
stock for us, the government license banks to create new
money for them. The ground rules under which banks operate
are drafted in consultation with banks. Most members of
the government are not familiar with the intricacies of
finance and, therefore, seek the advice of bankers.
|
The reality is that the ground rules are designed
by bankers, for bankers.
|
[ Top of Page ]
Bank Creation of Money
We have observed how depositors' security has been eroded
as the banking system has been empowered to create more
and more new money. Now we must ask, at what cost and for
whose benefit?
|
UK MONEY SUPPLY ANALYSIS 1970
- 1999
(£ millions)
|
| 1999 M4 Money stock |
813,868 |
|
| |
Less 1999 building society deposits |
121,593 |
|
| |
|
1999 Bank deposits plus notes and coins |
|
692,275 |
| |
Less 1999 notes and coins |
|
25,580 |
| |
|
1999 Bank deposits |
|
666,695 |
1970 M3 Money stock (excluding building society deposits) |
20,240 |
|
| |
Less 1970 notes and coins |
4,199 |
|
| |
|
1970 Bank deposits |
|
16,041 |
| |
Bank created deposits since 1970 |
|
650,654 |
In 1970, money supply figures were based on M3 which did not
include building society deposits. In 1999, money supply figures
are based on M4 which does include building society deposits.
Therefore, to compare like with like, we must subtract building
society deposits from the M4 figures provided in 1999.
Bank deposits have grown from £16,041 million in 1970 to £666,695
million in 1999.
The money supply is measured by adding the amount of currency
(notes and coins) in circulation - that is, not in the bank
- to the money in the bank (deposits).
There are differences of opinion as to which deposits should
be included in the M3 and M4 figures. Economists argue about
which ought and which ought not. M3 and M4 are "official".
They confirm that, regardless of the arguments of economists,
there has been an enormous growth in the "official" measurements
of the money supply over the thirty year period.
We, as citizens, authorize governments to create and maintain
a money supply for our use. Governments license banks. Banks
create money. Therefore, governments have actually authorized
banks to create all of this money for them.
Had the government created this money itself, printed it and
spent it into the economy, all £650 billion of it, we could
by now have the finest schools in the world, the finest national
health service in the world and the finest public transportation
system in the world.
The government didn't print it because of the nature of the
system. Had it printed the money and spent it into the system,
the banks, under either the fractional reserve system or the
capital adequacy system, would have used any new money created
by the government to create multiples of it as it was spent
into the economy and became new deposits - the fodder for
the banking system's capacity to expand the money supply.
The growth of the money supply and the inflation we have already
suffered would have been significantly worse.
I am not impugning the integrity of bankers when I say
that they have created more money and more inflation. Most
bankers that I know are men and women of integrity. It is
perfectly correct and natural for them to seek to manage
their banks as efficiently and as profitably as they can.
Yet, they haven't critically examined the system within
which they find themselves and within which they operate.
Within the existing banking and monetary system, when they
pursue their natural and normal activities - money lending
and managing their banks as efficiently and as profitably
as they can - they are actually acting against the best
interests of their depositors and society. This is because
of the structure of the system within which they function.
It is the system that is wrong. It is a system that has
grown out of an original fraud and which, although the fraud
has long since been made legitimate, still maintains those
faulty mechanisms within it.
Many will say that it is not fraudulent because they receive
interest on their deposits from their bank. Therefore they
expect their bank to use the money. In this respect they
will be accurate. It is not fraudulent from their perspective
if they expect the bank to use their deposits. Nevertheless,
the banking system will have issued more than one receipt
against the same deposit. That is still a faulty mechanism.
Examine the extent to which new deposits were created in
1999 alone
|
BANK CREATED GROWTH OF MONEY
SUPPLY 1998 - 1999
(£ millions)
|
| |
1999 Deposits |
1998 Deposits |
Increase |
| Bank of Scotland |
51,422 |
47,514 |
3,908 |
| Barclays Bank plc |
193,181 |
162,328 |
*30,853 |
| Halifax Group plc |
123,218 |
110,732 |
12,486 |
| HSBC Holdings plc |
273,450 |
229,050 |
**44,400 |
| Lloys TSB Group |
122,805 |
118,678 |
4,127 |
| Natwest |
118,778 |
112,942 |
5,836 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland plc |
51,481 |
42,487 |
8,994 |
| Annual growth in money supply |
|
|
***110,604 |
|
* In excess of the total money supply in 1970
** In excess of twice the total money supply in 1970
*** In excess of five times the total money supply
in 1970
|
In 1999, Barclays Bank alone created more new deposits than
the total money stock in 1970.
The annual growth in total bank deposits exceeded five times
the total money stock in 1970.
This growth is clearly not by one bank at the expense of another.
Barclays increase in deposits is not due to competition amongst
banks for deposits. None of these banks lost deposits.
In the case of each of these seven banks - and they constitute
the bulk of the high street banks in the UK - the growth
of loans exceeded the growth of deposits. It is the pursuit
of increasing their loan portfolios and, thereby, increasing
their profits that occupies the time and energy of banks.
Look how successful they have been.
|
BANK CAPITAL AND EARNINGS 1998
- 1999
(£ millions)
|
| |
1999 Capital |
Operating
profits
1998 - 1999 |
| Bank of Scotland |
3,104 |
829 |
| Barclays Bank plc |
8,835 |
2,598 |
| Halifax Group plc |
6,943 |
1,610 |
| HSBC Holdings plc |
22,943 |
4,576 |
| Lloys TSB Group |
8,726 |
3,735 |
| Natwest |
8,804 |
2,165 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland plc |
8,990 |
1,211 |
| Total capital and earning 1998 - 1999 |
68,345 |
*16,727 |
* The total operating profits of just these seven banks
exceeds the total of all bank deposits in 1970 (16,041) |
So, our bankers have indeed been successful. Each one of the
new Pounds created by the banks represents another Pound loaned
and earning money for banks.
| As the system now stands,
the more successful our bankers are, the greater the
burden of debt on our economy and the greater the burden
of debt on future generations. That is an unacceptable
by-product of bank success. |
[ Top of Page ]
The Cost to Society of Banks Creating Money
There are other unacceptable by-products. We have already
seen in Table 4 above that the government has forgone £650
billion in expenditure by allowing banks to create money rather
than creating the money itself and using it for the benefit
of taxpayers and citizens. We also know that, when the government
did need to spend money on behalf of its citizens, instead
of creating money itself as it has been authorised to do,
it borrowed the money and taxpayers have paid interest on
the borrowed money. That is money for which taxpayers need
not have been taxed.
|
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT INTEREST
(£ millions)
|
| 1970 |
2,088 |
| 1971 |
2,184 |
| 1972 |
2,413 |
| 1973 |
2,825 |
| 1974 |
3,671 |
| 1975 |
4,335 |
| 1976 |
5,609 |
| 1977 |
6,606 |
| 1978 |
7,450 |
| 1979 |
9,126 |
| 1980 |
11,404 |
| 1981 |
13,399 |
| 1982 |
14,781 |
| 1983 |
15,192 |
| 1984 |
16,909 |
| 1985 |
18,426 |
| 1986 |
18,486 |
| 1987 |
19,530 |
| 1988 |
19,830 |
| 1989 |
21,001 |
| 1990 |
20,900 |
| 1991 |
18,659 |
| 1992 |
18,737 |
| 1993 |
19,981 |
| 1994 |
22,963 |
| 1995 |
26,305 |
| 1996 |
27,975 |
| 1997 |
29.935 |
| 1998 |
30,547 |
| 1999 |
26,495 |
| TOTAL |
457,762 |
In addition to the £650 billion forgone, the taxpayer has
spent £450 billion on interest costs since 1970. This year
alone taxpayers will pay over £25billion on interest on money
which they have authorised governments to create at no running
costs. Yet, the government claims it cannot find enough money
to provide pensioners sufficient income to maintain a decent
standard of living.
Indeed, the success of the banks breeds a great deal more
unwanted by-products than a burden of debt on the economy
and unnecessary interest costs. The combination of the inflation
produced and the solutions offered by governments of all
persuasions and their advisors has divided the economy into
two distinct sections.
The top section includes all the financial institutions.
The ever-growing pile of money created by the banks remains
within the banking system. Money managers and money managing
institutions have a bigger and bigger stock to manage every
year. It doesn't take more and more people to manage the
bigger and bigger supply of money. The fees earned for the
management of an ever-growing money supply also grow. Yet,
through the process of consolidation - also known as mergers
and acquisitions, the numbers involved in the management
of this growing supply of money tends to shrink Therefore,
the salaries and bonuses of people in this top section tends
to grow at a greater rate than the increase in the money
supply itself.
The rest of the economy has a different set of ground rules
- and they stem directly from the very activities that produce
the increases in the top section. Over the past thirty years,
the effects of inflation and the cures offered to control
inflation have squeezed the rest of the economy.
To claw back the loss in purchasing power in their pay packets
as the value of money was being debased, workers demanded
and received higher than normal wage settlements during
the seventies and early eighties. For this they have been
severely criticized - and even blamed for causing inflation
- by those in the top section.
The new money created was used to produce more - and more
modern - production facilities both here and abroad, bringing
to the marketplace excess productive capacity and greatly
increasing price competition.
To curb inflation, interest rates were increased. As a result
banks were encouraged to lend more - the higher the level
of interest they could charge, the greater their profits,
first rate borrowers were discouraged from borrowing,
to lend more, banks reduced the quality of their loan portfolios
banks increased their interest rates even more to compensate
for lending at greater risk to borrowers of lower quality,
existing borrowers were locked in and had to pay the higher
interest costs, and
business overheads increased.
The effect of all of this has been a squeeze on business
costs. The increased competition, brought by the increased
productive capacity here and abroad - greatly increased
by the demand for 'free trade" - made it difficult for businesses
to increase their prices. Thus, more efficiency was demanded.
Managers had to choose between meeting the rising interest
costs - which had to be met or the entire business was at
risk - and paying employees. "Downsizing" roared in with
a zest. Employees at all levels were laid off. Employers
could no longer afford to feel loyal to their long-standing
employees. Loyalty between companies and their employees
was sacrificed in the name of efficiency. The bond had been
broken. Employees could no longer afford the luxury of feeling
loyal to their employers. The trust between them has been
destroyed. Suddenly, everyone was on his own. Society as
a whole is the poorer.
It made little difference whether an employee was in management
or on the shop floor. No job was safe. Employees were not
in the position to demand higher wages or salaries. The
pressure on their income is downward.
At the same time, money managing institutions wish to encourage
those managing the businesses and industries in which they
have invested to produce greater profits. Good managers
are offered stock options and other incentives to improve
the performance of their businesses. They, too, are money
managers. They control the flow of money through their businesses.
They must control costs. It is part of their job to maintain
the downward pressure on employee incomes - except their
own, of course.
Money managers have a different set of ground rules. They
are encouraged to make their businesses more and more efficient
and more and more profitable. The better they constrain
wage and labour costs, the more they, themselves, can earn.
Their remuneration increases according to their success.
The pressure on their income is upward.
Yet, with both prices and wages under pressure not to rise,
the currently accepted measurement of inflation has remained
very low. Governments and economists have celebrated the
end of inflation.
Inflation is not dead. The celebrations are premature.
Asset inflation is readily apparent in the stock market
and in house prices - especially in the price of houses
sought by those earning huge sums managing money and businesses.
It trickles down to other houses.
In the top section - in top management and in 'the city' in
particular - wages and salaries and bonuses have escalated
to the point that the differential between their earnings
and the earnings of those in the rest of the economy has become
so great that it threatens the very fabric of society. Still
the money supply keeps growing - as we have seen above - and
the levels of income generated in 'the city' continue to rise.
But, other than in top management, in the rest of the economy
wages and prices have been constrained.
What in the UK is currently labeled "the North/South" divide
is not a geographical divide. It is fundamentally a division
between money managers and top corporate managers and the
rest of the economy.
On the world stage this division is labeled "Western industrial
countries/third world countries". The western banking system
- and American banks in particular - have created money
and purchasing power at rates with which smaller countries
cannot compete. Thus, the western banking and monetary system
has severely disadvantaged third world countries.
When third world countries have found themselves in difficulties
the western response has been to help them by lending them
money. This allows western banks to create even more new
money creating even more new purchasing power. American
banks were instrumental in helping to form the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) specifically to
help less fortunate countries. Hidden by the mask of helping
the poor throughout the world, these banks created and spread
new dollars throughout the world.
Too often, however, the policies of the World bank and
the IMF have helped to cripple the very countries whom the
western banking system had already disadvantaged. These
policies required that borrowing countries produce crops
to sell on the open market for dollars so that the borrowing
countries can have dollars to repay their loans. Borrowing
countries have then had to concentrate on producing "cash
crops" rather than developing an agricultural policy designed
to feed their own people. Only countries which can feed
themselves are free.
All of these unfortunate effects have been produced because
governments and economists have failed to understand the
real nature of the western monetary and banking system.
Their failure to understand what is actually happening and
the consequent failure to correct the faults in the system,
has allowed an enormous gap to develop between the two sectors
of the economy. The continued growth of this gap breeds
anger and frustration as those who do not participate in
sharing the spoils of this growth in the money supply watch
the behaviour of those who do. Most people don't understand
what is wrong. They are acutely aware, however that something
is wrong. Social unrest is breeding.
We have seen at Seattle and Prague how strongly an anti-capitalist
movement is growing in Western countries and around the
world. This movement is led by people who feel genuinely
aggrieved about the huge gap between rich and poor - and
these are decent people mostly from within the western industrialized
countries themselves - blame capitalism. This movement is
growing.
|
Yet it is not capitalism itself which is creating
the disadvantage. It is the money-lending mechanism
within the banking system. Our failure to understand
that there is a serious fault within our monetary
and banking system and our failure to act, to get
governments to act and thus, our failure to remove
the fault and correct the system is threatening capitalism
itself. The practice of money-lending is putting all
of the advantages of capitalism at risk.
|
One of the unwanted results of the recent orgy of bank lending
- inflation - has removed from too many governments, businesses,
families and individuals their margins of comfort and safety.
In businesses, the demand for efficiency, often driven
by managers seeking to maximize their personal profits,
have led to banks reducing the level of stored cash - either
in their own vaults or at central banks - from the original
100% of deposits where every depositor was safe, to 20%
during the 'fractional reserve' period, to now where they
maintain just enough to meet their daily needs.
We all saw what happened during the petrol crisis in the
UK Petrol stations no longer have sufficient tank storage
to serve their customers for more than a few days. The nation's
fuel supply disappeared almost instantaneously. Supermarkets
no longer hold sufficient stock to supply their customers
for more than a few days. Without fuel to operate delivery
vehicles, supermarket shelves soon became bare.
None had maintained prudent margins of safety and comfort.
All were caught out by 'events'. The country was in crisis.
Our banking system no longer maintains prudent margins
of safety and comfort. Banks are not immune from the effects
of 'events'. The only absolute protection is to return to
a cash level of 100% of deposits.
- Why do we allow this threat to continue?
- Why don't we demand protection from 'events'?
|
[ Top of Page ]
Inaccurate Measurements
Part of the reason lies in the lack of understanding of
the real nature of the system. We have been misled by errors
in the very presumptions of economics. In the most basic
courses on economics we have been taught that when banks
lend money the money supply increases and when those loans
are repaid the money supply decreases. Thus, we are told,
these activities cancel each other out. We have accepted
this idea and have acted on it in good faith.
But it is not true. The money supply does not decrease.
It is only the measurement of the money supply that decreases.
When a loan is repaid it goes into the bank's own account.
The bank's own account is included under the heading "Cash
in hand and balances at central banks". Look again at Tables
1 and 2. On the bank's balance sheet, like any other company,
money in its own account is considered an asset and is shown
on the asset side of its accounts. Customer deposits, on
the other hand, are considered liabilities and appear on
the liability side of the balance sheet. When economists
measure the money supply, they measure the sum of Customer
deposits and cash in circulation (not in the banks). But,
deposits into the banks own account are not included. They
are missing from the measurement. Nevertheless, once deposited
into their own account, banks can use that money as they
see fit. They can pay bills with it, they can pay wages
with it, they can make investments with it and they can
lend it to another borrower. It is a nonsense to suggest
that it disappears and thus, somehow - mysteriously - the
money supply diminishes. It does no such thing. The measurements
are inaccurate and, as a result, the theory is inaccurate.
Further, the measurement of the Customer deposits itself is
inaccurate. Earlier I observed that economists argued about
which type of deposit should be included in the measurement.
All agree that demand or cheque accounts are part of the money
supply. It is about which other deposits to include that economists
argue. Time deposits, many argue, should not be included and
many are not. That is like the goldsmiths claiming that the
only real coins are the coins at the front of the shelf -
the coins which move in or out as customers make deposits
or withdrawals. The rest, we are asked to believe do not exist.
Of course that is nonsense. That explains the apparent anomaly
between Tables 4 and 5. It appears that the banks created
an excessive amount of new money in 1999 compared to the amount
they created over the preceding 30 years. The reality is that
the thirty year figure is not accurate. The amount of new
money created is actually substantially higher.
The reality is that economics is not a science. Nor can
it be. The money supply increases daily as banks create
new loans. As the supply increases, the value of previously
existing money diminishes accordingly. But, one of the functions
of money is to act as a unit of measurement of exchange
value. Yet, the size of the unit of measurement diminishes
daily. Imagine the chaos that would occur if the size of
the inch or the meter or the minute diminished daily. Measurements
taken by different people or at different times could not
be validly compared. Calculations based on such comparisons
would be equally invalid. Formulae derived from such calculations
could not possibly produce the results predicted. So it
is for economics. Economics is not a science. Nor are economists
scientists.
Yet, we have turned the entire management
of our economy over to economists and bankers. And now we
wonder what has gone wrong. The truth is we haven't understood
what has been happening - and neither have they.
[ Top of Page ]
Removing the Fault
Now that we have a better view of reality, we must begin immediately
to focus on correcting the monetary and banking system. We
must remove from it the fault that produces such unwanted
and unacceptable by-products whilst retaining the bits that
serve us well.
- We must stop banks from creating new money by
lending depositors funds.
- We must return to a system of 100% reserves.
- We must ensure that when we put money into the
bank it stays there unless we specifically authorize
it to move from our account.
- We must ensure that when it moves from our account
it moves in a manner which does not produce false
receipts.
- We must ensure that this highly profitable institutional
money-lending mechanism doesn't reappear in some
other guise, off-balance sheet or beyond the banking
system to continue to produce its insidious and
unacceptable effects and by-products in the name
of profits.
- People must demand new legislation to ensure that
banks clearly differentiate between their 'storage
and distribution' function and their 'investment'
function. In their capacity as a provider of storage
and distribution of money for depositors they must
be subject to strict and regular audits to ensure
that 100% of the money entrusted to them by depositors
is factually stored within their vaults. They must
not again be allowed to lend their depositors' funds.
|
Having said that, we must also ask: what is the alternative?
How else can we get the investment we need in the economy?
How else can we stop the money needed in the economy from
just sitting in the bank doing nothing?
[ Top of Page ]
The Equity System
There are, of course, two types of investment: debt and equity.
Debt investments are investments where the amount of money
invested is fixed and must be returned with interest. Equity
investments are investments where money is exchanged for
a fixed proportion of the ownership of the business or property
in which the investment is made.
Part of the difference between the two, then, is what it
is that is fixed. In debt investments it is the amount of
money that is fixed, with no ownership conferred, and in
equity investments it is the proportion of the asset that
is fixed and its monetary value can change upward or downward.
Also, in equity investments the rate of return will vary
according to the profitability of the investment whereas,
in debt investments, the rate of interest is fixed by contract.
On the surface, it looks like - at least in terms of money
- debt investment is safer. In fact, it isn't. Money loses
value and, as we have seen, that value loss is caused by
the very act of lending itself. So, the money returned to
the lender is not the same as the money loaned. It is only
the same amount of money. The loss to the debt investor
is purchasing power. Nevertheless, it appears to be safer.
The appearance of safety is enhanced by the legal preferences
given to lenders. If the investment fails, the investor
will have made an error in judgment and, regardless of which
type of investment the investor made - debt or equity -
the same error in judgment will have been made.
In the case of debt investments - lending - taxpayers will
provide the lender with courts, police, bailiffs and, if
necessary even prisons, to help the debt investor correct
his or her error in judgment. That is not the case with
equity investments. Equity investors must shoulder the full
burden of their own errors in judgment. They can lose the
total investment.
Why should taxpayers spend their hard earned money to help
investors to correct their own errors in judgment? In particular,
one must ask, why should taxpayers spend any money to support
investors whose chosen method of investment produces all
of the unwanted side-effects we have seen above? It is a
waste of taxpayers money and it encourages the production
of these unacceptable by-products.
The government further encourages debt investment by allowing
the interest costs of businesses to be deducted before the
calculation of their taxes. Dividends must be paid out of
the profits left after they have paid taxes. Individuals
cannot deduct interest costs in the same way. Therefore,
individuals pay a disproportionately higher level of taxes
than they ought and companies pay less than they ought.
Once again the banks have succeeded in getting preferential
treatment for debt investment and the taxpaying citizen
ends up paying the price.
The taxpaying citizen should now say "Cease. Desist. Enough
is enough. We are no longer willing to support this defective
monetary and banking system with its privileged personnel
bringing social division and huge and unnecessary costs
in its wake. We are no longer prepared to pay the costs
of helping lenders collect there money if a loan goes bad.
We will no longer pay for the time of courts, bailiffs and
police in pursuit of debtors. We demand legislation to make
all debt like gambling debts - legally unenforceable. If
lenders make errors in judgment let them bear their own
costs. We are no longer willing to pay. And, if anyone chooses
to lend money, the borrower must not be allowed to deduct
interest costs as an expense. Any interest paid must be
paid from the income left after taxes have been paid."
Of course, before people are going to make such a demand
they will want to be confident that a system based on equity
alone can produce the economic services they want.
If banks don't lend money, what is going to stop the money
from simply sitting in the bank doing nothing? The answer
is, quite logically: storage charges. If the banks are not
receiving interest on loans, they will have to charge the
full cost of storing and distributing depositors' money
for them. Bank charges are already high. They will have
to be even higher. Few will want to pay such fees for any
longer than necessary. High fees will erode their savings.
Instead, people with savings or money stored will want
to invest it in a safe investment that will pay them an
income. Once loans are no longer legally enforceable, lending
will not be safe. The borrower does not have to return the
money borrowed. Who will lend to anyone other than those
close enough to them to know that they are sufficiently
honourable to repay their loans. Even that carries risk.
Savers will seek a safe equity investment that will pay
them a dividend.
The safest equity investments have always been property
and public utilities - water and sewage companies, electricity
companies and gas companies. The latter are considered safe
because there is always a strong demand for their products:
they are essential to support life and they are sufficiently
regulated to ensure proper management.
Under an equity system, housing will join the list of essentials
needing equity finance. Without security for lenders, mortgages
will no longer be available. How will people be able to
buy a house? The answer is just as easily as with the current
mortgage system and with a much better system for both the
current borrower and lender.
Historically in this country, house buyers have paid about
10% of the cost of a house per annum for both a mortgage and
an endowment policy to ensure repayment of the mortgage. An
equity based purchasing system need cost no more and the market
to provide funds will be there. Savers will be actively seeking
secure equity investments for their savings. What could be
safer than houses?
Funds would be set up to invest in housing as joint owners
with home purchasers. Shared ownership funding is available
even now. Savers will buy shares in the funds and the funds
will buy a share of each house. Home owners could begin
by purchasing 5% of the house with the fund purchasing 95%.
In the absence of inflation, a public utility has historically
paid 3% per annum in dividends. On a rental rate of 5%,
with management costs of 2%, savers who were shareholders
could continue to receive 3% income on their investment.
So, the homeowner can afford to pay 5% per annum in rental
and to purchase a further 5% of the house every year. The
fund will thus continue to receive new funds to invest in
other houses. By the 10th year, the homeowner
will own 50% of the house.
Should a homeowner find himself or herself with financial
pressure due to a medical problem, school fees, or whatever,
he or she can simply stop purchasing the 5%. The rental costs
will also have diminished each year from rent on 95% of the
house to rent on only 50% of the house. Further, if for any
reason the house has to be sold, the homeowner will receive
50% of the proceeds or whatever the percentage that the homeowner
actually owns at the time.
It is a much more user friendly system. These types of
systems will be developed in every area of the economy.
There is much to recommend them.
What of banks? They will return to their original role
of warehouses and distribution centres. Their vaults will
have to be audited regularly to ensure that the money deposited
is still there. Banks will no longer be able to create new
money and increase the money supply. Inflation can then
well and truly be dead. The only genuine increases in the
money supply will then be what governments produce and they
are accountable to voters.
Bankers, themselves, however, have a great deal of information
about the financial condition and probity of individuals
and businesses in their own community. Their knowledge will
be in great demand as people seek equity investments and
businesses seek to raise equity funds. Banks may well become
the new marketplace for equity investing. Their advice would
be sought. They could broker investments. They could open
their own equity investment funds. And bankers would no
longer need to fear loss of confidence. The possibility
of 'events' triggering a run will have been removed. In
fact, there is no reason at all for banks to fear the future
under an equity system.
Once banks can no longer lend and multiply the monetary
base, the government can create the money to buy back and
repay its own debts. This will remove from the budget £25
billions in annual debt servicing costs. Pensions, for
instance, could then be substantially increased and provide
pensioners with a better standard of living.
In my book "Honest Money" I set out how these changes could
be made in one go and what would be required if that were
to be done. That is the ideal and I felt it important to
set out the ideal. Human nature being what it is, however,
we are unlikely to make such a radical change. The process,
though, can also be gradual.
It could begin passing the required legislation removing
the protection from lending and making it the case that
any loans issued after a certain date would not be legally
enforceable. Further legislation could require banks to
maintain 100% reserves for any deposit made after the same
date and to use the proceeds from loan repayments after
that date to purchase existing government debt.
Then, bank vaults would begin to fill with government debt
instruments. The government could then purchase those debt
instruments from the banks - replacing them in the banks'
vaults with notes and coins which could be measured at regular
intervals by approved auditors.
The new money created by the government to repay its £400
billion current debt would give substance to existing deposits.
There would be no increase in either deposits or money in
circulation. Therefore, it will not increase the money supply
and will not produce any inflation.
Similarly, the debtor countries currently burdened by the
requirements of the IMF and the World Bank can unleash their
shackles. Some of these debtor countries have been granted
debt relief thanks to the unstinting efforts of Jubilee
2000 and others. These are well intended efforts and we
should all be grateful for them. Nevertheless, having been
forgiven their debts, these countries have needed money
to rebuild and the IMF has loaned them more. They remain
tied to and shackled by IMF policy. They need a better answer.
There is one. They, too, can make all debt issued after
a certain date legally unenforceable. They, too, can repay
their domestic debt without producing further inflation.
Having done that, they can then repay their dollar debts
by issuing the dollar equivalent in their own currency and
using it as payment for all their foreign debts. Then they
will be free of debts, they will be free of the ties to
IMF policy and they will have investment to rebuild their
economies. The IMF and other foreign creditors will now
hold their currency. There will be no other place to spend
or invest it but in those countries. Of course, they will
also have to ensure a regime that is both investor friendly
and does not disenfranchise their own citizens. All of the
above is possible.
So, we can survive without debt investment. We can free
ourselves and the rest of the world from the shackles and
worry of debt.
|
|
It is time to take back control of our economy.
It is time to stop the waste of taxpayers' money.
It is time to end the division between 'the city'
and the rest of us.
It is time to stop the continued debasement of
our currency.
It is time to stop increasing the burden of debt
on the economy and future generations.
It is time to remove the fault from our monetary
and banking system.
It is time to return to a system where 100% of
our deposits are actually stored in the bank.
|
Then we will have confidence in the banks without
having to maintain it.
Then we will have returned integrity to our banking
and monetary system.
Then we will once again have a system which rewards
thrift not fecklessness.
Then we can begin to heal the divisions within
our own society and throughout the world.
Then we can begin to convert the huge burden of
debt that now exists to equity.
Then we can concentrate on building a collection
of assets for future generations.
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These are worthwhile objectives.
|
John Tomlinson October 5, 2000
[ Top of Page
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